These days after work at night, the TV is either showing EU Referendum debates or a Euro 2016 game.
I don't wish to downplay this EU Referendum (or what's termed as "Brexit" - Britain Exiting) because like what someone said, this is probably the only time we see something like this is our lifetime. Next Thursday 23rd June, Britain will vote to either stay or exit the European Union. I am not one to write about politics and don't wish to recreate any of the countless articles written on this subject. Truth is, this is a very important vote and because of this, many of us are forced (in a good way) to understand economics and politics more. Every man on the street, everyone of voting age. Bankers, bus drivers, nurses, accountants, cleaners, lawyers, grocers, doctors, Commonwealth citizens like us residing in the UK. The young and the old. The nation is on the edge with increased intensity of propaganda these past two weeks. The pound has been fluctuating and lowest it has ever been to the SGD (that's our concern). And I've never been more undecided on this vote that I will be casting next Thursday.
Months ago conversations with friends surrounding this would always end up with the view that Britain will not leave the EU. However recent polls seem to show otherwise - it is a close fight and now people are realising there IS a chance that Britain might be the first country to exit in the six decades of its existence. The EU started after WWII with the intention that creating a unified Europe will less likely result in another world war. Everything starts with good intentions of course. They then introduced a common currency, the Euro, for countries to adopt although at that time Britain voted not to use the Euro.
Work has organised two sessions, one of which was a panel of in house economists giving their professional views should a Brexit happen. I attended it with much interest and curiosity taking in each word that these experts were saying. Of course they were not allowed to express their personal views, but could only be partial and share their research papers or studies which have been done. Truth is, nobody knows for sure what would happen if Brexit happens so everything is guesswork, based on expert assumptions of course.
If a Brexit does not happen, it is thought that everything goes back to status quo. The GBP will go back to where it was and normality sets in. However should a Brexit happen, it seems like it could be a soft or hard exit and a permanent reduction in the country's GDP. A soft exit is when there is an amicable exit and some special terms negotiated with the EU. A hard exit would be the opposite and understandably, a higher reduction to the long term country GDP. One economist pointed out that with anti Euro semitism felt across the continent, some are worried that should a Brexit happen, other countries might be forced to hold similar referendum and as you know they say, the floodgates theory. Which makes it difficult to have a soft exit. A big topic being brought up time and again is the topic of immigration. Personally I believe that if there isn't a migrant crisis today, it might be an easier vote for many. However with the biggest human migration problem facing Europe today with no solutions, this topic can't be shunned. Also something which we need to consider - leaving the EU, Britain probably will survive in the long run, however negotiations at the table then will be a weaker voice compared to a stronger-together EU.
Of course the Remain camp maintains that Britain will be plunged into an economic crisis if we leave the EU. Banks are said to be looking into contingent plans - such as moving headquarters to another city within the EU. If it happens, Britain has two years to negotiate the terms. Policymakers would be extremely busy looking into drafting new policies, setting new laws... this is not an easy decision to make and I hope the common people can be well informed to make a wise decision next Thursday.
 |
| My postal vote |
Months ago conversations with friends surrounding this would always end up with the view that Britain will not leave the EU. However recent polls seem to show otherwise - it is a close fight and now people are realising there IS a chance that Britain might be the first country to exit in the six decades of its existence. The EU started after WWII with the intention that creating a unified Europe will less likely result in another world war. Everything starts with good intentions of course. They then introduced a common currency, the Euro, for countries to adopt although at that time Britain voted not to use the Euro.
Work has organised two sessions, one of which was a panel of in house economists giving their professional views should a Brexit happen. I attended it with much interest and curiosity taking in each word that these experts were saying. Of course they were not allowed to express their personal views, but could only be partial and share their research papers or studies which have been done. Truth is, nobody knows for sure what would happen if Brexit happens so everything is guesswork, based on expert assumptions of course.
If a Brexit does not happen, it is thought that everything goes back to status quo. The GBP will go back to where it was and normality sets in. However should a Brexit happen, it seems like it could be a soft or hard exit and a permanent reduction in the country's GDP. A soft exit is when there is an amicable exit and some special terms negotiated with the EU. A hard exit would be the opposite and understandably, a higher reduction to the long term country GDP. One economist pointed out that with anti Euro semitism felt across the continent, some are worried that should a Brexit happen, other countries might be forced to hold similar referendum and as you know they say, the floodgates theory. Which makes it difficult to have a soft exit. A big topic being brought up time and again is the topic of immigration. Personally I believe that if there isn't a migrant crisis today, it might be an easier vote for many. However with the biggest human migration problem facing Europe today with no solutions, this topic can't be shunned. Also something which we need to consider - leaving the EU, Britain probably will survive in the long run, however negotiations at the table then will be a weaker voice compared to a stronger-together EU.
Of course the Remain camp maintains that Britain will be plunged into an economic crisis if we leave the EU. Banks are said to be looking into contingent plans - such as moving headquarters to another city within the EU. If it happens, Britain has two years to negotiate the terms. Policymakers would be extremely busy looking into drafting new policies, setting new laws... this is not an easy decision to make and I hope the common people can be well informed to make a wise decision next Thursday.
On a lighter note, we spent some time at Regent's Park last Saturday :)
Comments